A bunch of teams have a good chance to bounce back with a win Sunday after suffering bad losses or going on their bye in Week 9. Teams like the Green Bay Packers and Philadelphia Eagles are significant home favorites, according to the Las Vegas betting odds, and they desperately need victories to get back in the playoff picture. The Cincinnati Bengals and Detroit Lions are both sizeable underdogs in contests they have a chance to win outright.
There’s no such thing as a “sure thing” when it comes to gambling, but here are the five best bets against the spread for Week 10 of the 2018 NFL season:
Cincinnati Bengals (+5.5)
As well as the New Orleans Saints have played during their seven-game winning streak, it won’t be easy for them to waltz into Cincinnati and walk out with a victory. Sunday’s game should be a competitive one with the Bengals covering the spread.
Drew Brees and New Orleans’ offense is going to put up points as always, but it might not be exactly like their 45-point Week 9 outburst against the Rams. The quarterback’s two mediocre performances this season have come on the road, and the Saints were held to just 24 points when they visited Baltimore. The Bengals are giving up eight fewer points per game at home than they are on the road.
Cincinnati is a real playoff contender at 5-3, and they’ve been in every game except for their visit to Kansas City, where every opponent gets blown out. Even without A.J. Green, the Bengals will be able to throw the ball all over the Saints’ brutal pass defense. New Orleans has surrendered 18 passing touchdowns with just four interceptions, and Andy Dalton could have a performance like he did in Week 8 when Cincinnati scored 37 points at home against Tampa Bay.
Detroit Lions (+6.5)
The Lions aren’t nearly as bad as they looked in last week’s loss to the Vikings. The Bears aren’t nearly as good as they looked in their win over the Bills. This should be a close divisional contest that’s only decided by a few points.
Chicago has benefited from playing a weak schedule, recording no wins against teams that currently sit above .500. Detroit does have a losing record, but the Bears won’t have an easy time blowing them out. Mitchell Trubisky has struggled more than his overall numbers indicate. He’s got just 10 touchdown passes, seven interceptions and a meager 6.8 yards per attempt if you ignore his one massive performance against the Buccaneers.
Detroit has the much better quarterback in Matthew Stafford, who won’t be sacked 10 times for a second straight game. Chicago hasn’t beaten Detroit by more than six points in seven years. The Lions started the season with two straight losses before manhandling the Patriots. Don’t be shocked if they rebound from another two-game losing streak with an upset at Soldier Field.
Tampa Bay Buccaneers (-3)
The Washington Redskins might be the NFL’s worst first-place team as they head to Tampa Bay as underdogs against the last-place Bucs. It’s a bad matchup for Washington that will likely result in their second straight loss.
Tampa Bay isn’t a very good team, but they are exactly the kind of team that’s given Washington trouble this season. The Redskins were blown out when facing the Saints and Falcons, both of whom have elite passing offenses. The Bucs have totaled more yards in the air than any other team. Ryan Fitzpatrick could be in for another monster afternoon.
Alex Smith and Washington’s offense are not built to come from behind or play in a high-scoring game. The Redskins’ wide receivers rank dead last in plays of 15 yards or more and yards after the catch, according to Pro Football Focus. Adrian Peterson will have trouble replicating his early-season success behind an offensive line that’s suffered several key injuries. Washington is 0-3 when giving up more than 20 points, and Tampa Bay has scored fewer than 26 points just once.
Green Bay Packers (-9.5)
After losing two straight road games against the Super Bowl favorite from each conference, Green Bay should bounce back nicely at Lambeau Field. They’ll blow out the Miami Dolphins, who are the NFL’s worst team that has a winning record.
The Dolphins have lost all three of their road games against winning teams by double-digits. Brock Osweiler might be the worst Week 10 starting quarterback that’s not named Nathan Peterman, and it’s hard to imagine him avoiding an awful performance here. In his last four road starts, Osweiler has thrown one touchdown pass and five interceptions while never posting a passer rating above 65.3. Miami’s two starting tackles are a game-time decision, and starting left guard Ted Larson is doubtful.
That likely means Green Bay can still win by 10 points with just an average Aaron Rodgers performance. Miami has faced five teams that rank in the top 20 in points scored. The Dolphins have surrendered at least 27 points and an average of 34 points in those contests. Miami is 1-8 straight up and against the spread in their last nine games as road underdogs, according to OddsShark.
Philadelphia Eagles (-6.5)
Philadelphia might be the most popular pick of the week after the nation saw the Dallas Cowboys lose by two touchdowns to the Titans Monday night. The betting public has been right a lot in the last few weeks, and they’ll be on the winning side of this one in Week 10.
Dallas is among the NFL’s worst offensive teams, ranking 26th in points per game. They are especially bad on the road, where they are averaging 13.5 points and haven’t scored more than 17 points in four losing efforts. Don’t expect Ezekiel Elliott to have a huge impact against a defense that’s allowed fewer rushing yards than 30 teams. Dak Prescott has thrown for fewer than 275 yards in 11 straight games.
The Eagles would have a sizeable coaching advantage over the Cowboys during a normal week. It could be even more apparent Sunday with Philadelphia coming off a bye and Dallas playing on a short week. Dallas is winless in their last nine games following a “Monday Night Football” appearance. That streak should extend now that the Eagles have added Golden Tate and they’ve had extra time to recover from some key injuries. The Cowboys will be without the injured Sean Lee, who is the most important player on their defense.
Season Record: 24-17-4