Bank drops its global growth rate prediction by 0.1 percentage points for 2018, 2019 and 2020
By Gokhan Ergocun
World Bank Tuesday revised its global economic growth expectation to 3 percent for 2018, 2.9 percent for 2019, and 2.8 percent for 2020.
“International trade and manufacturing activity have softened, trade tensions remain elevated, and some large emerging markets have experienced substantial financial market pressures,” the bank said in a press release.
The bank’s global economic growth expectations were 3.1 percent for 2018, 3 percent for 2019 and 2.9 percent for 2020 in its June report.
While the bank kept the growth rate expectations for advanced economies constant — the U.S., the Euro Area, and Japan, — for 2018 and 2019 with 2.2 percent and 2 percent, respectively, it lowered 2020 expectations to 1.6 percent from 1.7 percent.
The bank also dropped emerging market and developing economies’ (EMDEs) growth rate estimates to 4.2 percent for 2018 and 2019 and 4.5 percent for 2020, from 4.5 percent for 2018, and 4.7 percent for both 2019 and 2020.
“Slowing external demand, rising borrowing costs, and persistent policy uncertainties are expected to weigh on the outlook for the emerging market and developing economies,” it said.
The bank’s 2021 prediction for the world was 2.8 percent, while for advanced economies and EMDEs were 1.5 percent and 4.6 percent, respectively.
Ceyla Pazarbasioglu, the bank’s vice president for equitable growth, finance, and institutions, said: “Robust economic growth is essential to reducing poverty and boosting shared prosperity.”
“As the outlook for the global economy has darkened, strengthening contingency planning, facilitating trade, and improving access to finance will be crucial to navigate current uncertainties and invigorate growth,” she added.
Iran and Argentina witnessed significant differences in the forecast of the bank.
It revised Iran’s growth rate prediction from 4.1 percent to negative 1.5 percent for 2018, from 4.1 percent to negative 3.6 percent for 2019, and from 4.2 percent to 1.1 percent for 2020.
The bank’s growth expectation for Argentina was down by 4.5 percentage points to negative 2.8 percent for 2018, by 3.5 percentage points to negative 1.7 percent for 2019 and by 0.1 percentage points to 2.7 percent for 2020.
Meanwhile, the bank revised Turkey’s growth rate forecast from 4.5 percent to 3.5 percent for 2018, from 4 percent to 1.6 percent for 2019 and from 3.5 percent to 3 percent for 2020.
The World Bank’s 2021 prediction for Turkey was 4.2 percent.