Donald Trump election polls: Trump gaining momentum fast as Biden falters – latest odds

0

DONALD TRUMP was the target a stinging attack by former US first lady Michelle Obama who called him the “wrong president” for the country, but the latest odds reveal the US President is regaining traction – and fast.

Donald Trump is fighting to win his second term as the US President. The election will take place on November 3 so the candidates have just two and a half months to win votes. And earlier this year Mr Trump’s odds slipped drastically, showing Democratic candidate Joe Biden leading in the polls.

Donald Trump and his competitor Democrat Joe Biden each need 270 electoral votes to win the presidency.

Most states are leaning or solidly in favour of one candidate.

But in some states, the race is too close to call.

According to the latest odds, Mr Trump’s odds are gaining momentum with Mr Biden’s previous surge in the polls dropping off.

National polls are a good indicator of how popular a candidate is across the country as a whole.

But due to the electoral system in the US, they are not necessarily foretelling for who will win the election.

For instance, in 2016, Hillary Clinton led in the polls and won almost three million more votes than Donald Trump, but she still lost because she did not win in key states.

Joe Biden has been ahead of Mr Trump in national polls for most of 2020.

At times during this year, the Democratic candidate has hovered around 50 percent popularity and in recent weeks has had a 10 point lead on occasion.

The Democrat had a 50 percent lead ahead of Mr Trump’s 40 percent in the latest poll by YouGov of 1,246 people. 

Mr Biden had 51 percent support in the recent Morning Consult presidential election poll conducted from August 14 to 16 polling 11,809 people, compared to 43 percent for Mr Trump.

Another poll conducted during the same dates as above by Leger showed Mr Biden had an approval rate of 51 percent.

By comparison with the latter poll with 1,001 participants, Mr Trump won support from just 35 percent of participants.

In the US the number of votes you win, known as the popular vote, is less important than where you win them.

Most states nearly always vote the same way, meaning that in reality there are just a handful of states where both candidates stand a chance of winning.

These are the places where the election will be won and lost, which are known as battleground states.

Currently, pols in the battleground states appear to show support for Mr Biden, but Mr Trump has picked up momentum fast in recent weeks.

In an Echelon Insights poll conducted from August 14 to 18 of 1,000 recipients, 51 percent of those polled support Mr Biden, compared to 39 percent of Mr Trump.

The latest poll conducted by CBC News places Mr Biden ahead with 52.5 percent of the vote, compared to 43.6 percent for Mr Trump.

The publication outlines the Democrats are currently predicted to win 319 electoral college voted, compared to just 126 for the Republican party.

Of those 217 are Democratic safe electoral votes, 91 are likely Democratic electoral votes and 11 are leaning towards a Democratic win.

Of the 126 Republican votes, 95 are safe electoral votes, 28 are likely and three are leaning towards a Republican win.

In total, the body has estimated 93 electoral college votes are undecided and could be won by either party.

The following states are key battleground states with the current outcomes as predicted by the CBC News poll published on August 18:

  • Arizona: Democrat – 50.5 percent and Republican – 46.6 percent
  • Florida: Democrat – 52 percent and Republican – 46.3 percent
  • Georgia: Democrat – 49.4 percent and Republican – 48.1 percent
  • Iowa: Democrat – 48.0 percent and Republican – 49.1 percent
  • Michigan: Democrat – 52.7 percent and Republican – 44.8 percent
  • Minnesota: Democrat – 51.8 percent and Republican – 44.8 percent
  • Nevada: Democrat – 50.6 percent and Republican – 44.5 percent
  • New Hampshire: Democrat – 53.6 percent and Republican – 42.0 percent
  • North Carolina: Democrat – 49.7 percent and Republican – 48.0 percent
  • Ohio: Democrat – 48.1 percent and Republican – 48.7 percent
  • Pennsylvania: Democrat – 52.0 percent and Republican – 45.8 percent
  • Texas: Democrat – 47.9 percent and Republican – 49.3 percent
  • Virginia: Democrat – 53.8 percent and Republican – 42.0 percent
  • Wisconsin: Democrat – 52.0 percent and Republican – 44.7 percent.

Despite polls indicating a win for Mr Biden, the latest betting odds indicate Mr Trump is gaining traction with the electorate quickly.

The Betfair Exchange puts odds of re-election for Mr Trump up 42 percent compared to 35 percent last week.

Joe Biden is at 4/5 odds, which is an implied probability of 56 percent.

Donald Trump’s odds are at 7/5 which is an implied probability of 42 percent.

Betfair Exchange spokesperson Darren Hughes said: “Trump is closing the gap on Biden despite the Democrats getting their National Convention underway and the Betfair Exchange odds suggest The President is by no means out of the race.

“The plan for the Democrats this week should be to put further daylight between them and the Republicans but the early market moves suggest Trump could be more likely to close the gap again.”

Share.

About Author

Leave A Reply