CONSERVATIVE leader Boris Johnson is hoping to swing a majority for his party in tomorrow’s election. So according to the latest election polls, will the Conservatives win this election with a majority?
Boris Johnson has been tirelessly campaigning since he called a snap election in October this year. But have his efforts been enough to secure a parliamentary majority for the Conservative Party? Will he have enough MPs to back his Withdrawal Agreement through the Commons?
The latest and final general election MRP model from YouGov shows the Conservative Party narrowly winning with an overall majority in this election.
The data was collected between December 4 and December 10, and is the product of 105,612 interviews.
However, the model has a margin of error, and its predictions range between 311 and 367 for Tory seats forecast to win.
This could mean Boris Johnson would be left with a hung parliament, which could be disastrous for his plans to pass his Withdrawal Agreement through the House of Commons.
Theresa May won only 318 seats for the Conservatives in the 2017 election.
Short of the 326 seats needed for a majority, the election resulted in a hung parliament – with the Conservatives dependent on the DUP’s support during Theresa May’s tenure.
Predicted vote shares stand at 43 percent for the Conservatives, 34 percent for Labour, 12 percent for the Liberal Democrats and three percent for the Brexit Party.
This translates into 339 seats for the Conservatives, 231 for Labour, 41 for the SNP and 15 for the Liberal Democrats.
This is enough to give the Conservatives a majority of 28 in the House of Commons.
According to YouGov, a number of seats across the UK could be changing hands with tomorrow’s election.
The majority of Conservative gains are expected to be in the north, the West Midlands and former mining areas in the East Midlands and County Durham.
However, a number of seats are also being closely watched for potential Tory losses in this election.
Polling guru Sir John Curtice has outlined some of the seats he believes should be watched closely in the Telegraph.
Curtice highlights that Foreign Secretary Dominic Raab could be potentially be at risk in his Esher and Walton constituency.
Zac Goldsmith, the Conservative MP for Richmond Park could also be at risk, having won only by a majority of 45 in 2017.
Hastings and Rye, the constituency of former Work and Pensions Secretary Amber Rudd, is also up for grabs.
Ms Rudd has stood down from her constituency, and in 2017 only managed to hold onto her seat by a small margin.
Stephen Kerr, MP for Stirling, is also holding on to his seat by a slim margin of 148.
Mr Kerr will be facing stiff opposition from the SNP for his seat, but if he remains, Curtice says “success for the Tories here would suggest that the Scots Tory revival has begun to put down roots.”