In all likelihood, President Donald Trump will not win his bid for re-election Nov. 3. The overwhelming majority of polls since April 2019 show a victory for Joe Biden, and even the battleground states, which gave Trump the presidency in 2016, have either now fallen to the former vice president or are about to go his way.
A country wracked by COVID-19 and the raging George Floyd/Rayshard Brooks protests have also eroded voter support for Trump, not to mention an economy in recession and unemployment that’s reached record highs under the president’s watch.
However, Republicans are of the belief that Trump will win — November 2020 will be November 2016 all over again.
This view was expressed by Phillip Stephens, GOP chairman in Robeson County, North Carolina, who declared: “The more bad things happen in the country, it just solidifies support for Trump. We’re calling him ‘Teflon Trump.’ Nothing’s going to stick, because if anything, it’s getting more exciting than it was in 2016.”
“We’re thinking landslide,” this year, he said.
It appears Stephens isn’t alone in this thought. Politico reported this delusion seems to have roots inside the GOP, which don’t rely on poll numbers.
It seems the GOP pointed to a few glimmers of hope in their favor. GOP operators said when unnamed poll firms asked Americans who they think will win the election — and not who they’ll vote for — Trump performed somewhat well.
It’s also disconcerting to Trump’s faithful when they read remarks by their man that he’s frustrated by his sagging poll numbers.
“If I wasn’t constantly harassed for three years by fake and illegal investigations, Russia, Russia, Russia, and the Impeachment Hoax, I’d be up by 25 points on Sleepy Joe and the Do Nothing Democrats,” tweeted Trump last week. “Very unfair, but it is what it is!!!”
And, of course, Trump’s faithful still cling to the hope the economy will do a “V-shaped” turnaround that will be enough to get Trump re-elected.
“Things are coming right back where we want them,” believes Andrew Hitt, the state party chairman in Wisconsin. “That focus on the economy and on re-opening and bringing America back is resonating with people.”
Kyle Hupfer, chairman of the Indiana Republican Party, said contrary to what’s portrayed in the media, there’s still a high level of support out there for Trump.
Republicans in Iowa can’t be that sanguine, however. The latest poll by The Des Moines Register from June 7 to 10 shows Trump leading Biden by only one percentage point: 44% to 43%. Trump enjoyed a huge 51% to 41% lead over Biden in the Register’s previous poll in March.
Trump’s approval rating in Iowa has sunk. A full 52% of respondents disapprove of the job the president has been doing compared to 45% in the new poll. Trump’s approval rating is five percentage points lower than his result in March.
The poll showed 63% of Iowans saying the U.S. is on the wrong track, including 45% of Republicans. It’s rare for members of a political party to break with a sitting president of the same party, said polling firm Selzer & Co. that conducted the poll. Only 22% of Iowans said the U.S. is on the right track.