WELSH voters will decide who they want to represent them on Thursday as the UK holds its third general election since 2015. But who will win the election in Wales?
Voters across the country will head to the polls for the first December general election since 1923 tomorrow. Welsh voters will elect 40 MPs to represent the country’s constituencies in parliament. But who is predicted to win the election in Wales?
In 2017, Wales was mainly won by the Labour Party, with Jeremy Corbyn’s party securing a total of 28 seats.
In second place was the Conservative Party with seven seats.
Plaid Cymru was in third place with four seats and the Liberal Democrats secured one seat.
These results showed an increase in support for Labour winning three additional seats and for Plaid Cymru gaining one additional seat at the detriment of the Tories.
In the upcoming election, the latest YouGov MRP poll predicts there will be struggles for Labour across north Wales.
The MRP poll predicts Welsh Labour will win 26 seats, two seats down on its 2017 result.
By comparison, Boris Johnson’s party is expected to make gains, securing three seats more than in 2017 to hit 10 seats overall.
The Welsh Plaid Cymru party meanwhile is expected to win four seats in total, maintaining its result in 2017.
The main contests in Wales will likely be in the north, where all six of Labour’s seats are predicted to have a tight race.
According to the MRP poll, two constituencies are going to be won by the Tories, including Wrexham, which Labour has won in every election since 1922.
Labour has a marginal lead in four seats, including Ynys Mon, where there is a three-way battle between Jeremy Corbyn’s party, the Tories and Plaid Cymru.
In each of these six constituencies, the difference between the party’s in first and second place is five points or less, which means the result is uncertain.
The poll predicts a better outcome for Labour in south Wales, where the party is on track to retain all its seats, with Boris Johnson’s party not far behind in Newport West, Gower and Bridgend.
The Liberal Democrats are expected to face disappointment as they lose their recently gained seat of Brecon and Radnorshire as it returns to the Tories.
But what is the anticipated result for the 2019 election?
The Conservative Party are expected to make “significant gains” according to the latest Welsh barometer poll conducted by YouGov with Cardiff University.
The poll published on December 9 showed the Tories winning 37 percent of voting intention.
Labour by comparison were at 40 percent of voting intention and Plaid Cymru was at 10 percent.
The Liberal Democrats’ voting intention was polled at six percent, while the Brexit Party was at five percent.
In terms of seats, this Welsh barometer poll suggests:
- Labour: 20 seats
- Conservatives: 16 seats
- Plaid Cymru: three seats
- Liberal Democrats: one seat
However, the latest odds show the Conservatives will likely return to their 2015 position.
Betting website oddschecker predicts the results as follows:
- Conservatives: 11 seats
- Labour: 24 seats
- Plaid Cymru: four seats
- Liberal Democrats: one seat
These seats are as follows:
Vale of Clwyd
Carmarthen West and South Pembrokeshire
Brecon and Radnorshire
Alyn and Deeside
Merthyr Tydfil and Rhymney
Cardiff South and Penarth
Carmarthen East and Dinefwr
Vale of Glamorgan