THE 2019 election could see some big names removed from their seat, the latest MRP poll has found.
The election takes place in less than 24 hours and the latest MRP election poll from YouGov has revealed some big names at risk of losing their seat. The analysis, which surveyed approximately 100,000 British adults, identified the seats most likely to chance hands.
The poll predicted the Tories could win 339 seats and a vote share of 43 percent.
Labour could lose 31 seats – falling from 262 in 2017 to 231 – and take 34 percent of the vote.
In terms of seats won this would be the party’s worst performance since 1983.
Most of the seats changing hands are the ones Labour won in 2017, passing back to Tory control.
Labour has struggled in northern Leave areas and could lose former shadow ministers Caroline Flint and Mary Creagh in Don Valley and Wakefield respectively.
According to the YouGov analysis Labour has increased its vote share by an average of six points in seats it is defending that voted Remain but only by two points in seats that voted heavily to Leave.
Chris Curtis, research manager at YouGov, told The Times: “Given that Labour hasn’t really increased its vote share more against Remainers than Leavers on a national level, this does imply that we have started to see an increase in tactical voting.”
However, there are some big names within the Conservative Party who could found themselves locked out of the House of Commons after Thursday’s election.
The perhaps most prominent MP is Dominic Raab, who is the MP for Esher and Walton.
The Foreign Secretary’s 23,000-strong majority could be overturned by the Liberal Democrats, who are currently just 2 percent behind him.
Other eminent Tory MPs in the firing line include former Conservative leader Iain Duncan Smith, who has a three-point lead over his Labour rival in Chingford.
Environment Secretary Theresa Villiers could also be unseated by Labour in her Chipping Barnet constituency.
Eurosceptic Sir John Redwood could be removed as the MP for Wokingham by former justice minister Phillip Lee.
Mr Lee is contesting the seat for the Lib Dems after defecting from the Tories.
The big names likely to lose their seats
Dominic Raab – Esher and Walton
Sir John Redwood – Wokingham
Iain Duncan Smith – Chingford
Theresa Villiers – Chipping Barnet
Steve Brine – Winchester
Zac Goldsmith – Richmond Park
Dennis Skinner – Bolsover
Caroline Flint – Don Valley
Mary Creagh – Wakefield
Chuka Umunna – Streatham
Luciana Berger – Liverpool Wavertree
Sarah Wollaston – Totnes
Sam Gyimah – East Surrey