John Curtice issues hung Parliament warning in shock analysis of latest election polls


POLLING expert Sir John Curtice has warned the Tories the “last three days could still make a difference” as hung Parliament fears grow.

Sir John Curtice praised the Conservative Party for gaining a significant proportion of the vote and revealed the party is currently on track to secure a majority Government. However, the polling guru warned that the Labour Party could still dramatically increase their vote share during the final three days of campaigning. A substantial increase in votes for Labour could lead to a hung Parliament, which would be a disaster for the Tories, who have led in the polls throughout the general election build-up. 

Sir John Curtice said: “We are looking at on average a 10-point Conservative lead over the Labour Party.

“Which probably means, if it transpires in the ballot boxes, something around 345 to 350 Tory seats and Boris Johnson being able to pursue Brexit.

“But the Tory lead of 10 points is not that far ahead of the 6-point figure… at which you say there’s a 50 percent chance of a hung parliament.

“Those last three days could still make a difference.”

Yesterday the polling guru told the Andrew Marr show that Sunday’s polling data showed Boris Johnson was in “pole position” for a safe working majority in Parliament but that tactical voting between Liberal Democrats and Labour supporters was “an uncertainty hanging over the Conservatives”.

He explained: “We’re back where we were at the start of the election campaign.

“There has been movement for both the Labour and the Conservative Party, both have gained ground.

“Labour at the expense of the Lib Dems, and the Conservatives at the expense of the Brexit Party.

“But according to the polls today not very much movement has taken place in the last week.

“The Conservatives are certainly still in pole position, but not necessarily so far ahead that they are guaranteed a majority yet.”

Sir John continued: “People tend to decide to do it quite late in the day.

“It is also a relatively small number of people who do it but it can have a big impact.

“It is very difficult to see in the polls in the run-up to an election and that is bound to remain one of the uncertainties hanging over CCHQ in the next new days.

“The reason we are talking so much about tactical voting on the Remain side is that the Remain side is so split between Labour and the Liberal Democrats, although it has become more concentrated in Labour’s hands.

“On the Leave side, the vote has all but piled in for the Conservatives. That is why Boris is heading for victory.”

The general election will take place this Thursday, December 12. 


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